Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Dec 14 · 16:15 · Lens vs Nice
Likeliest: Lens win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens65%65%0
OursMarket
Draw21%20%0
OursMarket
Nice15%15%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 85% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 81% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 6 · at Nantes (A)2-1
- Nov 30 · at Angers SCO (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Strasbourg (H)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Monaco (A)4-1
- Nov 2 · v Lorient (H)3-0
Nice
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 11 · v Sporting Braga (H)0-1
- Dec 7 · v Angers SCO (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Lorient (A)1-3
- Nov 27 · at Porto (A)0-3
- Nov 21 · v Olympique Marseille (H)1-5
| Last 10 games | Lens | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.