Coupe de France (France) · Fri, May 22 · 19:00 · Lens vs Nice
Likeliest: Lens win · 61%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens61%61%0
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Nice17%17%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 53% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 83% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 39% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 78% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- May 17 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)4-0
- May 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-2
- May 8 · v Nantes (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · at Brest (A)3-3
Nice
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- May 17 · v Metz (H)0-0
- May 10 · at Auxerre (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Lens (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-1
- Apr 22 · at Strasbourg (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lens | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.