Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 7 · 16:00 · Lens vs Rennes
Likeliest: Lens win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 55%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens60%55%+5
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−3
OursMarket
Rennes19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 45% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 73% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 4 · at Troyes (A)4-2
- Jan 30 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · v Auxerre (H)1-0
- Jan 11 · at Sochaux (A)3-0
Rennes
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 3 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at Monaco (A)0-4
- Jan 24 · v Lorient (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at US Chantilly (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Lens | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.