Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 22 · 16:00 · Lens vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: Lens win · 44%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Strasbourg31%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 61% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
WinWinLossWinWin
- Nov 8 · at Monaco (A)4-1
- Nov 2 · v Lorient (H)3-0
- Oct 29 · at Metz (A)0-2
- Oct 25 · v Olympique Marseille (H)2-1
- Oct 19 · v Paris (H)2-1
Strasbourg
LossWinLossWinWin
- Nov 9 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-0
- Nov 6 · at Häcken (A)2-1
- Nov 2 · at Rennes (A)1-4
- Oct 29 · v Auxerre (H)3-0
- Oct 26 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lens | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.