Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:45 · Lens vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Lens win · 57%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens57%63%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%21%+3
OursMarket
Toulouse19%15%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 85% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 37% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 80% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 4 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-3
- Mar 20 · v Angers SCO (H)5-1
- Mar 14 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Mar 8 · v Metz (H)3-0
- Feb 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-1
Toulouse
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 12 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-4
- Apr 3 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Lorient (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Metz (A)4-3
- Mar 7 · v Olympique Marseille (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lens | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.