Coupe de France (France) · Tue, Apr 21 · 19:10 · Lens vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Lens win · 63%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lens63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−1
OursMarket
Toulouse16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 55% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 79% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lens
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 17 · v Toulouse (H)3-2
- Apr 4 · at LOSC Lille (A)0-3
- Mar 20 · v Angers SCO (H)5-1
- Mar 14 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Mar 8 · v Metz (H)3-0
Toulouse
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 17 · at Lens (A)2-3
- Apr 12 · v LOSC Lille (H)0-4
- Apr 3 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Lorient (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Metz (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | Lens | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.