LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:30 · Leones del Norte vs Libertad
Likeliest: Leones del Norte win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leones del Norte48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Libertad23%24%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leones del Norte
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Emelec (H)1-3
- Oct 9 · at Libertad (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · at Guayaquil City (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Técnico Universitario (H)0-1
- Sep 8 · at Mushuc Runa (A)1-1
Libertad
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Guayaquil City (H)4-0
- Oct 9 · v Leones del Norte (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Emelec (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Independiente del Valle (H)2-3
- Sep 7 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Leones del Norte | Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.