Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 13:00 · Lesotho vs Morocco
Likeliest: Morocco win · 94%
We make it 34% for both teams to score. The market says 29%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lesotho1%3%−1
OursMarket
Draw5%7%−2
OursMarket
Morocco94%90%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 34% | 29% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 6% | 10% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 99% | 97% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 1% | 3% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lesotho
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 25 · at Niger (A)0-0
- Jun 7 · at Kenya (A)0-4
- Jun 4 · v Kenya (H)1-1
- Nov 18 · v Malawi (H)0-1
- Nov 15 · v Malawi (H)0-0
Morocco
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Gabon (H)0-0
- Jul 9 · at France (A)0-2
- Jul 4 · at Canada (A)3-0
- Jun 30 · at Netherlands (A)1-1
- Jun 24 · v Haiti (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Lesotho | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.