La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Oct 21 · 18:00 · Levante UD vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante UD23%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Athletic Club46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante UD
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- Oct 12 · v Sevilla (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Barcelona (H)2-4
- Sep 6 · at Málaga (A)0-0
Athletic Club
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at Avaí (A)0-0
- Oct 17 · at Valencia (A)0-0
- Oct 13 · v Londrina (H)2-2
- Oct 6 · at Goiás (A)1-2
- Oct 1 · v Sport Recife (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Levante UD | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-7-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.