La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 13 · 14:15 · Levante UD vs Barcelona
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 88%
A 88% away win. The market says 83%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante UD4%6%−2
OursMarket
Draw8%11%−2
OursMarket
Barcelona88%83%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 12% | 17% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 96% | 94% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 89% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 4% | 7% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante UD
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at Málaga (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Real Betis (H)5-2
- Aug 24 · at Osasuna (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Espanyol (A)0-3
- May 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 9 · v Feyenoord (H)5-1
- Sep 6 · at Valencia (A)5-0
- Aug 31 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)5-2
- Aug 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Elche (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | Levante UD | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.