La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00 · Levante UD vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Sevilla win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante UD33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Sevilla36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante UD
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Barcelona (H)2-4
- Sep 6 · at Málaga (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Real Betis (H)5-2
- Aug 24 · at Osasuna (A)0-0
Sevilla
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Barcelona (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Levante UD | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.