La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 29 · 17:30 · Levante vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Levante win · 70%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante70%28%+42
OursMarket
Draw18%29%−11
OursMarket
Athletic Club12%43%−31
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 46% | +19 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 57% | +31 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 72% | −42 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 71% | +11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 39% | +46 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Nov 21 · at Valencia (A)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-2
- Oct 30 · at Orihuela (A)4-3
- Oct 26 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
Athletic Club
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Nov 25 · at Slavia Praha (A)0-0
- Nov 23 · v Paysandu (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-4
- Nov 15 · at Coritiba (A)0-0
- Nov 9 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Levante | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.