La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 11 · 15:15 · Levante vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Espanyol win · 55%
A 55% away win. The market says 41%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante23%30%−8
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−7
OursMarket
Espanyol55%41%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 47% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 53% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 59% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 43% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Jan 4 · at Sevilla (A)3-0
- Dec 20 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Dec 17 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)0-1
- Dec 8 · at Osasuna (A)0-2
- Dec 3 · at Cieza (A)1-0
Espanyol
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 3 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Dec 22 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Dec 7 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- Dec 4 · at Atlético Baleares (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Levante | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.