La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 7 · 15:15 · Levante vs Girona
Likeliest: Girona win · 40%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante38%33%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Girona40%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 55% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 67% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 47% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante
LossLossLossLossWin
- Feb 27 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-3
- Feb 18 · v Villarreal (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · v Valencia (H)0-2
- Feb 8 · at Athletic Club (A)2-4
Girona
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Mar 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-2
- Feb 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Feb 16 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Levante | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.