La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Levante vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Levante win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante52%44%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Mallorca24%28%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 72% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 61% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante
WinDrawLossWinWin
- May 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-2
- May 8 · v Osasuna (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- Apr 27 · at Espanyol (A)0-0
- Apr 23 · v Sevilla (H)2-0
Mallorca
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- May 13 · at Getafe (A)1-3
- May 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- May 1 · at Girona (A)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Valencia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Levante | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.