La Liga (Spain) · Fri, May 8 · 19:00 · Levante vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Levante win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 37%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante46%37%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Osasuna30%33%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 63% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 53% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- May 2 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- Apr 27 · at Espanyol (A)0-0
- Apr 23 · v Sevilla (H)2-0
- Apr 13 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-2
Osasuna
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- May 2 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-2
- Apr 26 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Levante | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.