La Liga (Spain) · Thu, Apr 23 · 17:00 · Levante vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Levante win · 51%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levante51%39%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Sevilla25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 44% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 61% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 55% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levante
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 13 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-2
- Mar 16 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Girona (H)1-1
Sevilla
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Apr 11 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Valencia (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-5
- Mar 8 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Levante | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.