First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Sep 5 · 18:15 · Levski Sofia vs FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
Likeliest: Levski Sofia win · 67%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levski Sofia67%61%+6
OursMarket
Draw18%23%−5
OursMarket
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 39% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 77% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 79% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levski Sofia
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 2 · at Slavia Sofia (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-0
- Aug 26 · at AEK Athens (A)0-4
- Aug 22 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)6-0
- Aug 18 · v AEK Athens (H)0-0
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 28 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Cherno More Varna (H)4-1
- Aug 11 · v Panathinaikos (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Levski Sofia | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.