Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 17 · 16:45 · Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg
Likeliest: Red Bull Salzburg win · 43%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 63%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Levski Sofia30%32%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Red Bull Salzburg43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Levski Sofia
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 13 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Slavia Sofia (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-0
- Aug 26 · at AEK Athens (A)0-4
Red Bull Salzburg
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 11 · at SV Ried (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)5-1
- Aug 30 · v Austria Wien (H)4-1
- Aug 27 · v Mjällby (H)3-0
- Aug 20 · at Mjällby (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Levski Sofia | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 2-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.