League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Leyton Orient vs Blackpool
Likeliest: Leyton Orient win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leyton Orient43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Blackpool30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leyton Orient
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Stevenage (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal U21 (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)2-3
Blackpool
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Cambridge United (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Wigan Athletic (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · v Bromley (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Leyton Orient | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.