EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Leyton Orient vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Leyton Orient win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 30%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leyton Orient44%30%+13
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Bradford City29%42%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 49% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 58% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 70% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 42% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leyton Orient
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · at Luton Town (A)1-1
- Sep 1 · at Bromley (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v Barnsley (H)1-3
- Aug 25 · at Walsall (A)0-0
- Aug 22 · at Wigan Athletic (A)2-0
Bradford City
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Mansfield Town (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · v Cambridge United (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-2
- Aug 26 · v Burnley (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Leyton Orient | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.