EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Leyton Orient vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Leyton Orient win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 34%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leyton Orient47%34%+13
OursMarket
Draw27%28%0
OursMarket
Oxford United26%38%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 51% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 55% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 62% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 66% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 47% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leyton Orient
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- May 2 · v Burton Albion (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Blackpool (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Rotherham United (H)0-2
- Apr 14 · v Mansfield Town (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Lincoln City (A)1-2
Oxford United
WinLossLossWinLoss
- May 2 · at Millwall (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-1
- Apr 21 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Apr 11 · v Watford (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Leyton Orient | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.