League One (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leyton Orient24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leyton Orient
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Stevenage (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal U21 (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)2-3
- Sep 8 · v Bradford City (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Luton Town (A)1-1
Plymouth Argyle
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 26 · v Burton Albion (H)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Crystal Palace U21 (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Blackpool (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · v Barnsley (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Leyton Orient | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.