League One (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00 · Leyton Orient vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Leyton Orient win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 32%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Leyton Orient61%32%+29
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday17%41%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 59% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 68% | −29 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 44% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Leyton Orient
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 8 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- May 2 · v Burton Albion (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Blackpool (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Rotherham United (H)0-2
- Apr 14 · v Mansfield Town (H)0-0
Sheffield Wednesday
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Aug 8 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)1-0
- May 2 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Oxford United (A)1-4
- Apr 22 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Leyton Orient | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.