Super League (China) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:35 · Liaoning Tieren FC vs Wuhan Three Towns
Likeliest: Wuhan Three Towns win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liaoning Tieren FC37%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Wuhan Three Towns38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liaoning Tieren FC
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)4-4
- Aug 15 · v Shenzhen Peng City (H)1-2
Wuhan Three Towns
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at Zhejiang (A)1-4
- Sep 12 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)5-1
- Aug 22 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Liaoning Tieren FC | Wuhan Three Towns |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.