Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Liaoning Tieren FC vs Zhejiang
Likeliest: Liaoning Tieren FC win · 45%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liaoning Tieren FC45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Zhejiang32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liaoning Tieren FC
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)4-0
- Oct 11 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)1-2
Zhejiang
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Shandong Taishan (A)0-5
- Oct 9 · v Shanghai Port (H)2-4
- Sep 18 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · at Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Yunnan Yukun (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | Liaoning Tieren FC | Zhejiang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.