Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 19:00 · Liberia vs Mali
Likeliest: draw · 50%
We make it 73% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liberia25%14%+11
OursMarket
Draw50%23%+27
OursMarket
Mali25%62%−37
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 41% | −14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 36% | 42% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 38% | +37 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 86% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 50% | 77% | −27 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 19% | +31 |
| Expected goals | 0.5 | 0.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liberia
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at Rwanda (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · v Sierra Leone (H)3-1
- Jun 6 · at Sierra Leone (A)0-1
- Mar 31 · v Libya (H)2-2
- Mar 27 · at Benin (A)0-1
Mali
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Cape Verde (H)0-0
- Jun 4 · at Iran (A)0-2
- Mar 31 · at Russia (A)0-0
- Nov 18 · at Jordan (A)0-0
- Jun 5 · at Congo DR (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Liberia | Mali |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-3 | 0-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.