LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:30 · Libertad vs Guayaquil City
Likeliest: Libertad win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Libertad44%47%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+3
OursMarket
Guayaquil City25%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 67% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Libertad
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Leones del Norte (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Emelec (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Independiente del Valle (H)2-3
- Sep 7 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Emelec (H)1-1
Guayaquil City
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Emelec (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Leones del Norte (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Mushuc Runa (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Orense SC (A)3-4
- Sep 2 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Libertad | Guayaquil City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.