Friendly International (World) · Mon, Oct 5 · 18:45 · Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar
Likeliest: draw · 36%
Likely score: 0–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the draw. The market says 33%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liechtenstein33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
Gibraltar32%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 30% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liechtenstein
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 1 · at Azerbaijan (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Malta (A)0-2
- Sep 24 · v Lithuania (H)0-2
- Jun 7 · v Cyprus (H)0-2
- Jun 4 · at Andorra (A)0-2
Gibraltar
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 1 · at Malta (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Andorra (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · v São Tomé and Príncipe (H)0-0
- Jun 6 · v Cayman Islands (H)4-1
- Jun 3 · v British Virgin Islands (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Liechtenstein | Gibraltar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.