Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 8 · 19:00 · Lille vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Lille win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lille46%43%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Real Betis29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 59% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lille
WinDrawWin
- Sep 3 · at Toulouse (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v PSG (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Angers (A)2-0
Real Betis
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 4 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Levante UD (A)2-5
- Aug 25 · at Valencia (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- May 23 · v Levante (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lille | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.