3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 · Lillehammer vs Oppsal
Likeliest: Lillehammer win · 84%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 84% for the home win. The market says 80%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lillehammer84%80%+3
OursMarket
Draw9%11%−2
OursMarket
Oppsal7%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 16% | 20% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lillehammer
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 26 · at Råde (A)5-1
- Sep 19 · v Bjoerkelangen (H)7-1
- Sep 12 · at Sarpsborg 08 II (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Raelingen FK (H)3-0
- Aug 30 · at Elverum (A)3-4
Oppsal
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 26 · v Brumunddal (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Ørn-Horten (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Fram Larvik (H)6-3
- Sep 5 · at Sandefjord Fotball II (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Raelingen FK (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lillehammer | Oppsal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-2 | 4-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.