3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Lillehammer vs Sandefjord Fotball II
Likeliest: Lillehammer win · 52%
A 23% away win. The market says 10%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lillehammer52%78%−26
OursMarket
Draw24%12%+12
OursMarket
Sandefjord Fotball II23%10%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 90% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 22% | +26 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 88% | −12 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 89% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lillehammer
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Ørn-Horten (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Oppsal (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at Råde (A)5-1
- Sep 19 · v Bjoerkelangen (H)7-1
- Sep 12 · at Sarpsborg 08 II (A)1-3
Sandefjord Fotball II
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · v Råde (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Fram Larvik (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Elverum (H)4-3
- Sep 21 · at Brumunddal (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Ørn-Horten (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lillehammer | Sandefjord Fotball II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.