Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 17:15 · Lillestrøm SK vs Molde FK
Likeliest: Molde FK win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lillestrøm SK29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Molde FK46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lillestrøm SK
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 1 · at Bærum SK (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Viking FK (A)0-3
- Sep 17 · v Torreense (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at SK Brann (A)2-1
Molde FK
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Aalesunds FK (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Trygg/Lade (A)5-0
- Sep 13 · at HamKam (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v KFUM Oslo (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Vålerenga IF (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | Lillestrøm SK | Molde FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 4-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.