Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Lillestrøm SK vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 66%
Likely score: 1–2
A 66% away win. The market says 61%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lillestrøm SK14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Real Sociedad66%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 22% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lillestrøm SK
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)2-0
- Oct 15 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Molde FK (H)2-2
- Oct 1 · at Bærum SK (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Viking FK (A)0-3
Real Sociedad
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Málaga (A)5-2
- Oct 15 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Sep 17 · v Bournemouth (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lillestrøm SK | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.