Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Lillestrøm SK vs SK Brann
Likeliest: Lillestrøm SK win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lillestrøm SK41%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
SK Brann35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lillestrøm SK
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Sandefjord Fotball (A)2-0
- Oct 15 · at AC Sparta Praha (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Molde FK (H)2-2
- Oct 1 · at Bærum SK (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Viking FK (A)0-3
SK Brann
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Vålerenga IF (A)1-3
- Oct 15 · v Lincoln Red Imps (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · v Viking FK (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Bodø/Glimt (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Os TF (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lillestrøm SK | SK Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-4 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.