Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 17 · 19:00 · Lillestrøm SK vs Torreense
Likeliest: Lillestrøm SK win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lillestrøm SK63%62%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%21%−1
OursMarket
Torreense17%17%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 83% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lillestrøm SK
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at SK Brann (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)1-4
- Aug 27 · v KF Egnatia (H)1-1
- Aug 20 · at KF Egnatia (A)0-0
Torreense
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 11 · v Leixões SC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Benfica B U21 (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Vizela (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Lusitânia Lourosa (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Penafiel (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Lillestrøm SK | Torreense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 4-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.