Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · Lincoln City vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Lincoln City win · 69%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln City69%42%+27
OursMarket
Draw19%27%−8
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers12%31%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 69% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 58% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 73% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 57% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln City
WinLossLossWinWin
- Aug 29 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Blackpool (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Derby County (A)2-1
Blackburn Rovers
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Aug 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-2
- Aug 25 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-1
- Aug 14 · at Wolverhampton (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Burton Albion (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lincoln City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.