League One (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 15:00 · Lincoln City vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Lincoln City win · 43%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln City43%39%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers31%33%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 49% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 55% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln City
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)4-1
- Jan 31 · at Wigan Athletic (A)1-0
- Jan 27 · v Bradford City (H)3-0
- Jan 22 · v Burton Albion (H)2-1
- Jan 17 · at Luton Town (A)2-2
Bolton Wanderers
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Barnsley (H)3-2
- Jan 31 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)1-0
- Jan 27 · v Burton Albion (H)2-1
- Jan 24 · v Leyton Orient (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at Stevenage (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lincoln City | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.