Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Lincoln City vs Burnley
Likeliest: Burnley win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln City29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Burnley43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln City
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Millwall (A)2-2
- Oct 14 · v West Ham United (H)0-6
- Oct 10 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
Burnley
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 16 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-2
- Oct 13 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at Watford (A)4-0
- Sep 19 · v Derby County (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Swansea City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.