Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 11:30 · Lincoln City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Lincoln City win · 75%
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln City75%39%+36
OursMarket
Draw17%28%−11
OursMarket
Portsmouth8%33%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 49% | +21 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 67% | +25 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 61% | −36 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 72% | +11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 54% | +37 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln City
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Aug 8 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- May 2 · at Port Vale (A)2-0
- Apr 25 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)4-3
- Apr 21 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)2-0
Portsmouth
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 15 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
- Aug 8 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- May 2 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 21 · at Coventry City (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Lincoln City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.