Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 11:30 · Lincoln City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Lincoln City win · 58%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln City58%24%+34
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
Southampton21%52%−31
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 48% | +31 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 76% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 31% | +42 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln City
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 1 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Blackpool (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Aug 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
Southampton
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Millwall (H)5-1
- Aug 25 · v West Ham United (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Stoke City (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · at Watford (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Lincoln City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.