Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Lincoln City vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln City31%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Swansea City40%38%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln City
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 15 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at Bournemouth (A)0-4
- Sep 5 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Sep 1 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
Swansea City
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
- Sep 1 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Derby County (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Lincoln City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.