Championship (England) · Wed, Oct 14 · 19:00 · Lincoln City vs West Ham United
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln City15%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
West Ham United61%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln City
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Preston North End (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at Bournemouth (A)0-4
West Ham United
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Millwall (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Fulham (H)2-3
- Sep 11 · v Wrexham (H)6-0
- Sep 8 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Lincoln City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.