Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Twente win · 76%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lincoln Red Imps7%11%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
FC Twente76%70%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 30% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 93% | 89% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 9% | 14% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lincoln Red Imps
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at SK Brann (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · at Larne FC (A)2-0
- Aug 20 · v Larne FC (H)0-2
- Aug 13 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v Omonia Nicosia (H)1-1
FC Twente
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Oct 15 · v FC Thun (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lincoln Red Imps | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.