Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · Liverpool FC vs London City Lionesses
Likeliest: London City Lionesses win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool FC20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
London City Lionesses54%51%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool FC
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Manchester United (A)0-1
- Sep 27 · v Everton (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Manchester City (A)2-4
- Sep 13 · v Tottenham FC (H)1-1
London City Lionesses
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Everton (H)2-1
- Oct 4 · at Tottenham FC (A)6-1
- Sep 26 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at Charlton Athletic WFC (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Liverpool FC | London City Lionesses |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 5-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.