Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 1 · 20:00 · Liverpool vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Liverpool44%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Aston Villa31%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 1 · v Juventud (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-3
- Oct 26 · v Atlético Progreso (H)3-1
- Oct 25 · at Brentford (A)2-3
- Oct 22 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)5-1
Aston Villa
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 26 · v Manchester City (H)1-0
- Oct 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-2
- Oct 19 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Oct 5 · v Burnley (H)2-1
- Oct 2 · at Feyenoord (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.