Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 9 · 19:00 · Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 20%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool36%56%−20
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Atletico Madrid39%20%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 80% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 44% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 73% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Jul 12 · v Cerro (H)1-2
- Jun 8 · v Cerro Largo (H)0-0
Atletico Madrid
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 5 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- Aug 19 · v Málaga (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.