Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Liverpool vs Brentford
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 41%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool41%52%−11
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Brentford34%25%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 63% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 63% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 75% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 67% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- May 22 · v Racing (H)0-0
- May 16 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- May 15 · at Aston Villa (A)2-4
- May 9 · v Chelsea (H)1-1
- May 8 · at Wanderers (A)0-1
Brentford
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- May 17 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-2
- May 9 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 2 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Apr 27 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
- Apr 18 · v Fulham (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.