Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 57%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Dec 9 · at Inter (A)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Leeds United (A)3-3
- Dec 3 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at West Ham United (A)2-0
- Nov 26 · v PSV (H)1-4
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Dec 7 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Dec 3 · v Aston Villa (H)3-4
- Nov 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Brentford (H)2-1
- Nov 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Liverpool form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record