FA Cup (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 20:00 · Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Liverpool56%61%−5
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion22%18%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 39% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 77% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Liverpool
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 14 · v Defensor Sporting (H)1-2
- Feb 11 · at Sunderland (A)1-0
- Feb 8 · v Manchester City (H)1-2
- Feb 6 · at Albion (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 11 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Jan 19 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.